2nd Covid wave approaching rural India, impact visible in high-frequency indicators: CRISIL

The impact of state-announced brakes is manifested through high-frequency indicators, including retail and workplace mobility, power supply, electronic GST bill collection, and power supply , which are down for the second week in a row now. The nation’s second crushing Covid-19 wave continues to reach new highs with each passing day, as daily cases have approached the four lakh level for several days now.

“The second wave is approaching rural India. The share of predominantly rural districts in new cases in April was 30%, up from 21% in March. This is still less than the peak reached in the first wave (at 40 percent in August 2020), ”says the CRISIL report.

Also Read: COVID-19 Vaccination: India Needs 8 Years 9 Months To Get Herd Immunity

CRISIL, in its research report “ Wall of Worry, Covid-19 and its Impact on Economic Activity in India, ” claims that retail mobility fell by 8.2pp on average over the past year. week ending May 2 vs. 11.4 pp decrease in the week ending April 25. .

Mobility at work slowed by 7.1 pp from 7.9 pp a week ago. Likewise, the collection of tolls via electronic mode decreased by 2% on weekdays, against -8% the previous week. Power supply rose 0.9% on weekdays, down from a 1.9% contraction a week ago, he said.

Goods and Services Tax (GST) electronic invoice collection (volume) decreased 6.9% on weekdays for the week ending April 25 vs. -6.2% for the week ending April 18 . Rail freight loading fell 2.1% in the week ending April 18. May 2 versus -0.7 percent a week earlier.

Also Read: India To Reach ‘Peak’ Of Second Covid Wave In 20 Days From Now, Says SBI Research

The report adds that daily vaccinations are slowing as vaccine stocks are choked. The vaccine supply “fell from 1992 per million the previous week to 1,585 per million on average during the week ending May 2,” he said.

This is notably the third week in a row where daily vaccinations have decreased despite the launch by the Center of the inoculation campaign from May 1. Cumulatively, India has administered doses of 15.4 crore so far. With vaccine supplies still disrupted, several states have expressed their inability to start the campaign due to lack of supplies.

The CRISIL report says India could learn from other countries around the world that went through waves two and three. “Many advanced economies that experienced a resurgence in late 2020 / early 2021 have been cracked down with new restrictions, some more stringent than the first time around (eg Germany, UK),” he said. said, adding that people and businesses are learning to live. with the virus, economic activity has been less impacted.

In addition, the “economic stimulus” pumped into economies in the second and third quarters of 2020 somewhat “cushioning” the impact of subsequent waves, the CRISIL report said.

Also read: Barclays Cuts India’s GDP Forecast For Fiscal 22 To 10%; the numbers get worse if the sidewalks continue

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